maandag 11 januari 2010

Israel, Egypte en PA op een lijn?

Een analyse van Ali Waked, reporter van Y-net gaat van het volgende uit:
Egypte gaat door met het bouwen van de afscheidingsmuur op de grens van Gaza en Egypte ondanks felle pogingen van Hamas en ondanks Arabische publieke druk en bemiddeling om dit tegen te gaan. Zelfs rechtzaken in Cairo om de muur te verhinderen hebben geen invloed op de verdere bouw van de muur. Ook gevechten rond het bouwwerk en zelfs de dood van een Egyptenaar lijken geen gevolg te hebben voor de muur.
Aan de andere kant wordt de druk op Abbas vergroot om toch de onderhandelingen met Israel weer op te pakken om tot een oplossing van het Israelisch-Palestijns conflict te komen.
Het derde element van de analyse gaat over de geruchten dat Israel weer een grondactie voorbereidt tegen Hamas en dat de vorderingen tussen de PA en Israel de wereld de ogen zal doen toeknijpen daar al te veel over te zeggen.
De drie elementen werken als volgt:
1 Hamas krijgt geen nieuwe wapens meer via de tunnels en er komt echt gebrek aan van alles.
2 PA en Israel maken vorderingen in hun onderhandelingen
3 Hamas krijgt een militaire dreun.
Deze mogelijke samenwerking tussen Israel, Egypte en de PA tegen Hamas is uniek en volgens Waked de enige mogelijkheid Hamas op de knieen te krijgen..
Toch vraag ik me een paar dingen af:
Kan Egypte uiteindelijk de interne druk en externe Arabische druk blijven weerstaan om Gaza te helpen.
Is het verstandig van Israel om militair in te grijpen terwijl de kruitdampen van de vorige oorlog nog over Israel, de internationale gemeenschap en Gaza hangen. Zal de internationale gemeenschap niet precies andersom reageren.
Is de PA wel te vertrouwen in deze, want tot nogtoe hebben ze alle vergaande vredesvoorstellen om triviale redenen van de hand gewezen.
Wel past in dit kader de onderhandelingsstrategie over Shalit.
Vandaag staat weer in de krant dat Hamas daarmee door wil gaan, terwijl Israel volhardt in het weigeren van alle eisen die Hamas stelt. De Duitse onderhandelaar is weer ingezet.
De tijd zal leren of deze coalitie (Israel, Egypte en de PA) echt bestaat en of dit een oplossing tussen Israel en de PA nader zal brengen.


Hamas fears Gaza fence part of three-way siege
Ali Waked
Published:  01.11.10
Egypt continues to push forward with underground barrier along Gaza border, aimed at shutting down smuggling tunnels. Gaza sources fear this may be part of plan to topple Hamas while Israel, PA resume peace talks
Hamas officials in the Gaza Strip have admitted that they are concerned over the Egyptian underground barrier under construction along the Gaza-Egypt border.
The fence is expected to reach a depth of 18 meters (59 feet), and span 10 km (about 6 miles), and threatens to strangle the Strip's only lifeline – the smuggling tunnels. Hamas fears that via this channel, Egypt is joining the Palestinian Authority and Israel in creating a three-way siege on the Strip that would severely hurt the movement.
If the Egyptian plans, which are already in the works, are completed, the Palestinian organizations will have a much more difficult time smuggling weapons, especially with the Israeli navy keeping a close eye on its shores.
The Palestinians are equally concerned with the strain the barrier will put on their ability to smuggle basic living goods into the Strip. "We are capable of dealing with the Egyptian attempt, but there is no doubt that this fence is not a simple one, and it is very concerning for us," Gaza sources told Ynet. The tools to which the sources referred are Arab public pressure and Arab mediation attempts, which so far, do not seem to be having an impact on the Egyptian regime.Lawsuits filed in Egyptian courts by a number of local bodies in hopes of having restraining orders issued against the construction of the fence also failed to hinder construction. Sources in the Strip told Ynet they fear the fence may be just one part of the puzzle, which includes the renewal of the diplomatic process between Israel and the PA, as well as Israeli threats of military action in the Strip. The Hamas movement realizes that one of the goals behind the construction of the fence is to make breaching the border more difficult. The organization is also following statements made by IDF officials on the continued armament of Palestinian organizations. Hamas believes the IDF is preparing the ground for military activity.
Anyone looking in on the occurrences both on the Palestinian side and the Egyptian side can see that in order to topple Hamas, joint Palestinian-Israel-Egyptian activity is required. For the first time, such cooperation seems to be underway. Israel and Egypt are pushing via the blockade, and the Palestinian Authority may be part of a political process through which the international community may turn a blind eye to Israel's forceful defeat of Hamas, in order to restore PA leadership in the Strip. Ynet has also learned that in the meantime, Egypt continues to boost activity in Egyptian Rafah in hopes of limiting the smugglers' step before they even make it to the Gaza border. The Egyptian military demonstrates much presence in the area, in hopes of keeping elements that may harm efforts to deal with the smuggling away.
Gaza sources also wonder how much money Egypt received in exchange for damaging its own economy, which rolls in hundreds of millions of dollars per year from the goods smuggled to the Strip.
Prices in Gaza continue to rise by the day following steps taken against the smugglers and tunnel operators, as well as IDF threats to strike the tunnels. "We are in a period similar to that before war, we are gathering and storing, and at much higher prices," Palestinians in the Strip told Ynet''
Hamas: Border clashes linked to Egyptian barrierEscalation of violence on Egypt-Rafah border related to construction of Egyptian underground barrier, Hamas official admits; dozens hurt in Wednesday's riots. Hamas parliamentarian: Israel still our main enemy
Ali Waked and AP
Published:  01.06.10
Clashes on Egypt's border that left at least one Egyptian soldier dead and dozens of Palestinians hurt are related to the construction of an Egyptian underground barrier, Hamas admitted Wednesday.
Ehab Ghussein, the spokesman for Gaza's Interior Minister, linked the day's events to Egypt's construction of the underground barrier along its border with Gaza. He called the protest "a natural reaction to the iron wall and against the policy of cutting the veins of life that is taking place there."
Ghussein said 35 Palestinians were injured, including five who are brain dead. His tally could not be reconciled with that of local doctors. "The protestors sought to make themselves heard so their voice reaches decision-makers in Egypt, in the hopes they will change their decision regarding the fence and allow international peace activists to come in," he said.

Cry of the hungry

Meanwhile, Hamas parliamentarian Mushir al Masri said that the "iron fence would not be able to defeat the Palestinian people, just like Operation Cast Lead did not defeat us." He also stressed that Hamas will continue to view Israel as its main enemy, noting that "the occupation is dangerous for Egyptian security just like for Palestinian and Arab security.Another Hamas member, Fauzi Barhoum, said that Wednesday's protests marked "the cry of the hungry."

Earlier, Hamas has asked Egyptian officials to look into the conduct of Egyptian troops, while Hamas' media outlets continue to slam the conduct of Egypt's forces. Meanwhile, border area residents reported hearing occasional fire throughout the evening.

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